{"id":10610,"date":"2025-06-17T11:30:00","date_gmt":"2025-06-17T09:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/hub.hslu.ch\/financialmanagement\/?p=10610"},"modified":"2026-02-11T14:53:52","modified_gmt":"2026-02-11T13:53:52","slug":"beyond-the-usual-suspects-how-corporate-risk-management-benefits-from-criminal-trials","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/hub.hslu.ch\/financialmanagement\/2025\/06\/17\/beyond-the-usual-suspects-how-corporate-risk-management-benefits-from-criminal-trials\/","title":{"rendered":"Beyond the Usual Suspects: How Corporate Risk Management Benefits from Criminal Trials"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Von <a href=\"https:\/\/www.hslu.ch\/de-ch\/hochschule-luzern\/ueber-uns\/personensuche\/profile\/?pid=224\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Prof. Dr. habil. Stefan Hunziker<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>What if companies assessed their uncertainties not with probabilistic approaches, but rather like the way criminal trials are conducted in common law systems, such as the U.S. or the U.K.? These trials employ one of the most systematic and disciplined decision-making processes in the face of uncertainty. Can corporate risk management learn from that?<br><br>Criminal trials are designed to decide despite uncertainty and incomplete facts. The process invites opposing narratives, tests assumptions, and requires both sides to build their case. It\u2019s not probabilities that matter, but whether the narrative is coherent, plausible, and convincing to decision-makers. A jury doesn\u2019t conclude someone is \u201c85%\u201d guilty. Decisions are based on whether the narratives convince \u201cbeyond a reasonable doubt\u201d, a threshold that doesn\u2019t require certainty, but rather a narrative strong enough to withstand reasonable objection.<br><br>For some risks, this logic can offer helpful guidance: when data is sparse, not all possible scenario outcomes are known, and risks are unique, in these contexts, using probability-weighted scenario analysis becomes too speculative. In risk management terms, \u201cbeyond a reasonable doubt\u201d translates into a question of decision readiness: Is the risk scenario strong enough, given its implications, assumptions, and uncertainties, to justify action?<br><br>Beyond decision logic, courtrooms also offer valuable lessons in risk governance. Risk committees can assume a role closer to that of a jury or a judge, not just receiving reports, but actively challenging assumptions, hearing competing views, and facilitating well-reasoned decisions. Risk managers are creators of risk narratives, subject to challenge.<br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Management of Uncertainties<br><\/strong>By fostering a culture of structured dissent and narrative justification, risk governance facilitates the assessment of deep uncertainties. Here is how:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>Step 1<\/summary>\n<p>Treat uncertainties as \u201ccase files\u201d: combine scenarios, assumptions, and impact ranges with coherent narratives to create a comprehensive understanding<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>Step 2<\/summary>\n<p>Introduce structured dissent into the process: challenge assumptions through Red Teaming, second opinions, or \u201cconsidering the opposite\u201d<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>Step 3<\/summary>\n<p>Shift risk committees from \u201cpassive oversight\u201d to \u201cactive deliberation\u201d: Is the case strong enough to justify action, even amid deep uncertainty?<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>Step 4<\/summary>\n<p>Build a risk precedent archive: document how uncertainty in decisions was addressed, what information was known, and what logic informed the decision.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n\n\n<p>This post is not a rejection of probabilistic models; they remain essential tools for many risks (as those who follow my posts know). However, when facing unique uncertainties, a courtroom-style approach may offer a more suitable solution.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Do your current risk processes and governance support this kind of structured, courtroom-style thinking?<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Imagine a company where risk management activities are suddenly abandoned, and decision-makers wouldn\u2019t notice. Nothing changes except that management has more time because the yearly discussion of the risk report is left out. A nightmare or bitter reality in some companies?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":236,"featured_media":10612,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"_relevanssi_hide_post":"","_relevanssi_hide_content":"","_relevanssi_pin_for_all":"","_relevanssi_pin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_unpin_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_keywords":"","_relevanssi_related_include_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_exclude_ids":"","_relevanssi_related_no_append":"","_relevanssi_related_not_related":"","_relevanssi_related_posts":"7898,9500,885,2516,2080,2643","_relevanssi_noindex_reason":"","ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":"","_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[10225],"tags":[588092,67442,67441,3648,67439,404,588093,588091],"class_list":["post-10610","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-risikomanagement","tag-decision-making","tag-enterprise-risk-management","tag-erm","tag-ifz","tag-risikomanagement","tag-risk-management","tag-risk-report","tag-uncertainty"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Beyond the Usual Suspects: How Corporate Risk Management Benefits from Criminal Trials - Financial Management Blog<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Imagine a company where risk management activities are suddenly abandoned, and decision-makers wouldn\u2019t notice. 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